Some sort of balancing corrective to the short-sightedness is needed-now!

His name was Companion of Hours, or Iry-Hor. He was one of the earliest rulers of Egypt. Not the first ruler - before him, Scorpion I and Bull ruled the Nile delta. But thanks to the remnants of a clay vessel placed in his tomb 5200 years ago, Iry-Hor is the earliest living historical person known by name, with material evidence of his existence. The oldest wooden statue known as the Shigir Idol is twice as old as the oldest pyramid. Dating to 9,000 BC - and possibly much older- this is the oldest known sculptural project in the world. Again, not only or the first - it was one of many similar wooden object form Early Mesolithic Urals. But Shigir survived for over 11,000 years by pure luck.  It was made from larch, which is naturally phytoncidic, then preserved in a bog that had an acidic, anaerobic environment, which kills micro-organisms. Making seems to be much easier than outlasting. For humans, achieving immortality seems almost impossible. We try, we strive, we fail. And then again, mostly by chance, incidentally, the remnants and relicts from the past resurface, only to frustrate us with how little we know about who we truly are.  Will good intentions, detailed planning and (un)limited resources be enough to preserve us in millennia or beyond, only time will tell. But if anything has a chance, then it would be long-term thinking itself, as a foundation, that would set us on track. This week our small team of makers, immersed in a topic well beyond our grasp: The Long Now. https://longnow.org/

James G The most pressing problems we face as a species such as climate change, epidemics, and wars are of a complexity that are enormously difficult for us to conceive of solutions for. Mitigating these existential risks requires huge amounts of intellectual and physical resources, scientific analysis, creativity, innovation, coordination of billions of people, and a multi generational commitment. As humans, we do not have the best track record for managing these types of challenges. Despite humanities enormous technological achievements, we still possess brains that have evolved primarily to grapple with the life needs and struggles of a hunter gatherer in the African savannah. While these brains may have served us well in the past, the scale of the challenges of the contemporary era demand a different approach. The Long Now Foundation is an initiative that is attempting to address these limitations by promoting long term thinking and responsibility. For example their 10000 Year Clock project is an incredible monument born of utopian thinking along the lines of Etienne Louis Boullee's Cenotaph for Isaac Newton. It also brings to mind the long term nuclear waste warning messages discussed in "Into Eternity", the 2010 documentary film. Monuments like this are a powerful tool for transmitting ideas and messages across deep time and forming collective memory. You could spend countless hours browsing their collection of essays, videos, lectures, and podcasts that deal with a diverse array of fascinating topics that lie at the intersection of philosophy, art, science, architecture, engineering, anthropology, history, and sociology. I am proud to work for an organisation that is a member of the foundation and is linked to the pursuit of its goals of thinking, understanding, and acting responsibly.

Josh The Long now project is something that has piqued my interest for a little while now. Ever since the Ted talk about the Long now clock came to YouTube I've be intrigued with the the extended thinking of the future- Is it possible to extend our existence beyond our lifetime if we think hard enough? The seriousness of the project is appealing, it has a certain weight that helps it transcend the short term. But one part of the "Long now" project that is super intriguing to me, outside of the clock project, is the "long bets" spinoff. Long Bets is a place where people can make long term predictions in a "gentleman's bet" fashion. The idea is simple- you stake some money at 50/50 odds, against a prediction. There are a few rules, which are outlined clearly on the site- the bet has to be relevant, the minimum term is 2 years, there is no maximum term, you have to use your real name- and all won money goes to charity. you can have a look at all the rules and caveats on their site. "Matilda will still be married to her cousin, Shane in 2032." .... is not a bet. "The share price of RMD on the ASX will be above 100 dollars by 30.08.2024" ... is an example of a long bet. A very interesting aspect is that all the bets are public. Scrolling through the site and looking at all the things that people are betting on shows what people are thinking about! some bets have even been won and lost- indicated by a blue "WIN" symbol. Some notable bets-  Joe Keane in 2008 bet-  "Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth." His stake was 1000 dollars and the period was 10 years. He was countered by Nick Damiano, who as we all can figure- won. Christoph M Stahl bet, in 2008 that by 2018 the Euro wouldn't be the legal currency in France Italy and Germany! And some longer bets- - By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes (bet in 2002) - At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150. (bet in 2002) - By 2060 the total population of humans on earth will be less than it is today. (bet in 2017). And my favourite- "Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S&P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses." (10 years, 2008-2017) The content isn't that interesting to me, as much as the people behind the bet. Warren Buffet Vs. Protege Partners LLC. The total amount of the bet? $2,222,278 USD. If anything, Longbets is a mild amusement, but thinking a bit deeper reveals the fragility of all these predictions. All it takes is one bat to transfer it's cold, for all of our bets to fall apart.

Andrew The Long Now is an organisation which strives to inspire long-term thinking in an attempt to improve the quality of our human existence. Its’ centrepiece, a mechanical clock with a 10,000 year power reserve. They’re gonna want to put an onion crown on that one. We were all tasked with giving our opinions on this organisation. Without knowing what anyone else would write about, I tried to come up with an original viewpoint. Whilst even the entire weekend was not enough time to delve properly into every sub group of the Long Now (which I highly recommend you do), it was enough time to absorb the bulk of it, and come to this conclusion. For comparison, some of the oldest institutions known to human history: Education: The oldest existing educational institutions on earth include the King’s School, Canterbury, England, founded in 597, the University of Karueein, founded in 859 in Fez, Morocco, as well as the University of Bologna in Italy, founded in 1088. There are many others that would still be here if not for civil unrest, religious war, and systematic genocide. Business: The oldest operating business on earth was Kongo Gumi in Japan, founded in 578. It was a construction company that specializes in shrines and temples until it was bought out in 2006 after suffering financially. Certainly, many other long running businesses have ceased operation for the same reasons as above. Finance: Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena is the oldest surviving bank in the world, founded in 1472. Sveriges Riksbank is the central bank of Sweden and the world’s oldest central bank, founded in 1668. Religion: Judaism is the world's oldest known monotheistic religion, dating back approximately 4,000 years. Hinduism is said to be even older, and there are several religious idols and depictions that have been discovered and dated to before even that (the Dreamtime and Aboriginal Australians – approximately 75,000 years). Horology - the literal study and measure of the passage of time: The Antikythera mechanism has been dated (if it is even human) to sometime around 200-100BC. As it stands, it is the oldest mechanically complex horological device, until around the 1300s when the Verge escapement was invented by…someone. It makes me laugh that out of all histories, horological history is so often completely incomplete, or absolutely contested with flimsy thereabout dates. The Horological Society of New York is the oldest still running society, founded in 1866. All this to say: we (humans) like to think that we are very forward thinking. And we are; actually, out of every animal, we are the best by a country mile. But we still aren’t very good. Thinking 75 years ahead from now, based on a 75,000-year timeline starting with early Aboriginal Australians, is like thinking 86 seconds ahead in a 24-hour period. And we certainly don’t even do that. In fact, I would be very surprised if most countries had a forward planning average longer than whatever their standard government/parliament term is. So, every time you drive across the Sydney Harbour Bridge (in traffic or not), be thankful it was made wide enough to incorporate seven vehicle lanes, a 24-hour bus lane, two train lines, a footpath, and a cycleway, in the 1920s! Oh, the foresight! (Hands up if you remember the M4 having two lanes). But not only that, we for the most part struggle at making things last. Depending on which historian you talk to, there have been over 70 distinct ‘civilisations’ (ancient Rome, Carthage, South Americas, Babylon, etc.) Their average length? Take a guess. The worst part is, most of the time, these civilisations are not destroyed by natural events, but by mismanagement and war. Not to mention the fact that if any relic is moderately valuable there are always attempts to steal or destroy. The Great Pyramids of Giza were once covered in stark white polished limestone. What a sight that would have been if you didn’t have your eyes toasted from the reflection. The average lifespan is about 349.2 years with a median of 330. Of course, many lasted much longer than that, say a couple thousand years for the biggest and best. Clearly, you can see the cynic, realist(?), and pessimist, creep to the surface as I type this. 10,000 years is a bloody long time. With a current global average life expectancy of 70 years, that’s about 143 lifetimes. For both the organisation to last and the clock to chime. Please, don’t get me wrong, I am behind this idea 100%. As well as the clock, some sub-organisations include The Rosetta Stone and PanLex, who are documenting, translating, and recording all languages in human history that are currently known. How much more might we know about ourselves if we could only decipher the scribbles of old? There are also lectures not only on the importance of forward thinking but how to do it better than we have been, and trying to learn from past human failure and success. So many reasons to be a part of it. Come on, a 10,000-year clock that produces a unique chime every day! That’s the coolest thing ever! Watchmaking is all about embedding yourself as a humble character in the passage of time by maintaining its measuring devices, and ensuring that they live longer than yourself. This is that and then some. But a small part of me struggles not to think that the project is doomed to fail, because humans are too. The smallest example of our impending doom in relation to forward thinking that comes to mind; me wanting to be a part of this organisation and finding out how much it costs to contribute and become a member, only to weigh the cost of membership against private health insurance, with consideration that the average home deposit for pretty much every suburb in Sydney has had a rise in cost of between $40,000 and $120,000…over the last year. More than most yearly salaries. A bigger example: We just can’t stop throwing rubbish into the ocean. Of course, I could just better manage my finances and squeeze the membership in, or protest at Town Hall in the time slot after the ‘Free Julian Assange’ people, but that would be putting brand new rims on a car with no engine. This might be an exaggeration but it holds true for so many things. The Long Now won’t pay my mortgage or fill my belly. (Please read in David Attenborough voice) For humans to start putting the effort in for each other, en masse, generations into the future, our world must be in a place of absolute peace, prosperity, and progression. Anything less, and the human will default to its primal, knee jerk reaction of self-preservation (End David A.). Seems pretty pointless winding a clock to last thousands of years when our current legacy as viewed from ultra-advanced aliens is – Earth, group of animals who fail to correctly harness natural resources due to greed, fail to care and feed each other due to greed, and fail to preserve the only home they have due to mindless wastefulness, and greed. I promise this article is mostly a jokingly bleak, light-hearted criticism. It is just the immediate negative reaction I have to most things. I know the purpose of the Long Now is to start the chatter and inspire people which is very noble, and I’m sure it is already succeeding with 11561 members since 01996. If that clock is finished in my lifetime, I will climb that mountain to hear its chime and give it a wind. Of that you can be certain. And you should too. It is being designed in such a way that it can be modified and updated as time and technology rolls on. Made from materials that are of no value (you’d be lucky to get $1.50 per kilo for stainless and would have to get it out of an actual mountain first, but then again, all of that stark white limestone is still gone). Of course, there are instructions in easy-to-understand pictorials on maintenance and usage, so that in the unlikely event of a virus wiping us all out, whoever finds the clock will be able to continue the ticking. But due to the length of time it is expected to run, it will be mostly a manual wind clock. I give it 4000 years…give or take 349.2.

Michael When I first heard about the Long Now project at work it came across as just a bunch of super rich people flexing their wallets by building an overpriced elaborate clock to show off, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. I think the Long Now project is the perfect response to mainstream modern nihilism that has become far too prevalent and is the first step towards a brighter, more thought out future.  Currently we are in a very interesting state as humans where we are rejecting the past, eroding culture and consuming meaningless content like never before. It seems that as we have fallen deeper into the grips of technology and consuming, in the effort to become more connected, we have traded true human connection both with each other, and ourselves. We have gotten so caught up in ourselves and the here and now, that our future has become a murky topic where we love to point fingers, but no one is responsible. That’s where the Long Now project comes in. Started out of necessity, the Long Now project aims to encourage ‘long term thinking’ - to put the next 10,000 years into perspective and work towards preserving what we have, and improving on what we can. While the clock is an incredible feat of engineering, its true purpose is to start the conversation around, and cement the idea of a 10,000 year future.  I think the idea of Long Now is incredibly unique because it is attempting to create a culture around being thoughtful about what our future will look like; it’s not your typical foundation. But by far my favourite aspect about the project is how they’re utilising technology to preserve culture and information, such as with their iconic ‘Rosetta disk’ - a microscopically etched disk capable of fitting 13,000 pages of information at 400 microns a page. The issue of culture dying out is not a topic that is brought up often, but it is one of extreme importance. With so much new information and content being uploaded and streamed everyday, if we are not careful, the important stuff could become buried and erased forever. Luckily the Long Now project is working towards a ‘10,000 year Library’ which would help to catalog and store all of the important stuff. Incredible. I believe the Long Now project is the perfect first step we need to make for the future, and it really grounds the idea that we will be around for much much longer. For anyone who is thinking about getting involved, I’d say do it. The future generations will thank you, and it’s a perfect legacy to leave behind to further our species.

Gemma  The Long Now was established 1996 as a way to raise awareness about the acceleration of technology, the short-horizon perspective of market-driven economics, the next-election perspective of democracies, and the distractions of personal multi-tasking. All are on the increase. The concept behind this idea is extremely relatable in today’s world and when thinking about Covid 19. We cannot be short sighted and need to encourage everyone in taking long-term responsibility for Australia to open back up to the rest of the world. This concept is extremely meaningful to me as I am Scottish and have been unable to travel home in nearly four years.  This is a huge chunk of my life and a long time. And who does not want to go on holiday?

James N  If the lockdown in Sydney has given me one thing it is time to think. Only now that I’m beginning to write this short essay, I’ve realised that so much of what I’ve been thinking of, and Mr Hacko’s interest in both the “Yes Chef” mentality and The Long Now Foundation, are more intertwined than I first realised. It’s quite simple if not a little depressing: the future and where my place in it is. From everything I’ve experienced since January, I’ve come to understand that everything in watchmaking takes time - pun intended. The 10-year commitment of apprenticeships confirm that and so does the time and effort that has been put into Brookvale’s watchmaking projects. Furthermore, The Long Now Foundation holds this concept of time central to its mission. But what I have also been reminded of this lockdown, is that it’s so easy to become complacent. While it may seem like it will have little impact on a long term goal, in reality, complacency is the real enemy of long term commitments. Thinking small and individualistically is another disease that slowly but surely chips away at the substance of this long journey of watchmaking and learning. A quick look at its website shows that The Long Now Foundation’s key focus is to establish a long-term initiative and thinking that contradicts the world’s increasingly worrying mindsets of sacrificing quality for quantity. Mr Hacko’s interest and membership in this type of organisation is no coincidence. I don’t think what is being done here in Sydney can be done without the acknowledgement of the necessity of long-term planning - not even massive investments can magically make everything work itself out. Despite this end goal being well known, the lockdown has brought forth more complacency than I’d like to admit. Nothing can remedy being in the city and at the workbench but more can be done at home. This essay is only a small puzzle piece in the wider scheme of mitigating the impacts of this lockdown not only on my learning but also on the long-term goal. The other unfortunate and lurking side effect of being stuck at home and physically disconnected from Sydney Watches is simply forgetting about the unit. Staying inside with only my thoughts has promoted this individualistic thinking that can be detrimental to the importance of working as a collective.  Finally, the meeting point of the “Yes Chef” philosophy, that of The Long Now Foundation, and watchmaking: perhaps it is a combination of slowing down to speed up and being both in the movement and future. What I mean is that working efficiently with what needs to be done, whether it is an essay or a repair but acknowledging the future and consciously not getting lost in the moment. My mind could just be playing tricks on me as the lockdown eats away at my last brain cells and these ideas could fundamentally oppose each other but Yes Chef and The Long Now Foundation have both contributed to building and broadening my perspective. As my watchmaking journey continues, let time be the judge of it- pun intended.