Tuesday, August 27, 2024

We are humbled – and you are invited!

 

Horological Society of New York, Thursday September 26, at 6:30 PM.

Founded in 1866, the Horological Society of New York (HSNY) is one of the oldest continuously operating horological associations in the world. Today, HSNY, is non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the art and science of horology through education. Members are a diverse mix of watchmakers, clockmakers, executives, journalists, auctioneers, historians, salespeople and collectors, reflecting the rich nature of horology in New York City.
RSVP: josh@nicholashacko.com.au
Strictly limited to 50 guests.                          

Worth a million, sold for peanuts!

The three members of the Skylab 4 crew are photographed standing near Pad B, Launch Complex 39, Kennedy Space Centre, Florida, during their pre-flight activities. They are, left to right, scientist-astronaut Edward G. Gibson, science pilot; astronaut Gerald P. Carr, commander; and astronaut William R. Pogue, pilot. [Source Wikipedia] 

Image taken on 7 November 1973, NASA.
The first watch on the moon: Omega Speedmaster.

The first automatic chronograph in space: humble Seiko 6139-6005.
It was the US astronaut Colonel William Pogue, who wore that very Seiko watch on the 1973 Skylab 4 mission - despite not obtaining NASA authorisation - to time shuttle engine burns due to his familiarity with the watch and trust in its capabilities. Yes, a watch he trusted the lives of his fellow astronauts and indeed his own life with. 

Here is the question: if the SEIKO Pogue, worn in space, on a NASA mission was auctioned today, how much would you bid? Or, how much would Seiko pay to acquire the original Pogue for their museum? A hundred thousand dollars? A million?

Strangely and bizarrely, Pogue let the watch go for only $6,000 at a charity auction held in 2008…

On today's offer: freshly arrived “The New Seiko Pogue” reinterpretation and a tribute to the original chronograph.

Probably the most anticipated release of the year: The Speedtimer SSC947

In stock, ready for immediate delivery.

Price: $1,100. First five pieces only, FREE delivery.

I wish I met him 30 years ago…

 

We’ve been in the watchmaking business since 1951, when the first Hacko opened a small repair shop in a central European country right on the border of the Iron Curtain. Literally three years after World War II ended. Running a small business, and being a self-employed was kind of a novelty in a country where the State took care of employment. There were three kind of citizens: farmers, factory workers, and intelligencia. In that system, we were a misfit from day one.

Yet things ran relatively smoothly: we fixed watches, providing a valuable service to both state and citizen.

>From a taxation stand-point, small businesses were assessed by a Government official in a very rudimentary way: pauschal, or flat rate. Meaning, once a year an assessor would walk into our family shop, have a good look at the number of watchmakers (two, plus an apprentice) and stock on hand (none, just spare parts). He would also take into account the shop’s location and passing traffic, and based on that, we would come up with a figure which represented an amount of tax to be paid that year.

The negative side of flat rate taxation was obvious: inherent unfairness and corruption, but there was a positive side too: no invoicing, or billing, no book keeping, and no accounting of any kind, meaning zero administration. We simply focused on fixing watches. We only started retailing watches in the late 1970s when non-government businesses were allowed to buy and sell watches.

I saw my first proper accountant upon arrival in Australia. Quite frankly, it took me a few years to figure out why I should even have one when the business was really struggling to break even. My very first accountant was an Irish gentleman, Mr. McCarty from Parramatta, who was equally puzzled with my desire to operate a small business – lacking working capital, having no local experience, and barely able to speak English. Ten years later, after moving to the city, the business was ready for a new accountant: a serious professional with an office in York street. I have to say that we got what we paid for: a good relationship, proper business structure, finely tuned performance. You buy Rolex, you wear Rolex kind of deal.

Unfortunately we had no choice but to part at the very outset of Covid because Nikolaki decided to close the city office and move interstate.

It was then when I met my current accountant. Sam is a legend. He is the kind of guy who can answer any question, on the spot, in a second. Efficient, prompt, friendly; a mature gentleman who simply loves what he does. For Sam, nothing is difficult. I trust him blindly. He's the A.Lange & Sohne of accounting. Every morning I pray for his health before I pray for my own.

Why am I retelling all this? Last year, I met Ivan, an accountant from Adelaide. Ivan kindly helped me setting up a small radio retail business which is now celebrating it’s first birthday. Over the past twelve months, we exchanged numerous emails, phone calls, we worked together on the website, and we’ve spent many late evenings trying to find a strategy to launch new products. Quite frankly, I have never come across someone more passionate about my business than I am.

It would be a sin not to recommend Ivan. I bet there is someone out there, in Adelaide, right now, thinking of taking their business to the next level, or simply, looking for a passionate, enthusiastic, trustworthy accountant. If this is you, or someone you know, then give him a call and simply mention ‘Nick, the watchmaker from Sydney’. I have no idea what he can do for you, but I can guarantee that you would be hard pressed to find a more passionate and a better value for money accountant in Adelaide.

For complete transparency: Ivan did not pay, or even ask to be mentioned in this newsletter. The idea is entirely mine, on merit, my way of saying ‘thank you for going the extra mile’.

An unsolicited 5 star Google feedback, so to speak.
Ivan Vujic BCom
Accountant
Registered Tax Agent: 26195484

M: 0449 252 750
E: ivan@nexusaccounting.au
W: nexusaccounting.au

A: 179 Grange Rd, Findon, SA, 5023
P: PO Box 11, Findon, SA, 5023                         

Tools of the trade:

 

As many of you know, our workshop in Brookvale is not only the place where all our watches are manufactured, but also where we run a business called NH Micro. Dedicated to manufacturing high precision components for parallel, precision industries. We manufacture components for the medical, scientific instrumentation, space, optics and photonics, high frequency communication and semiconductor industries, just to name a few. Our skills and experiences in making, small, highly precise and complex watch parts means that we are able to manufacture parts for all these other industries, where many manufacturers might struggle.

I'd love to show you all the parts we've made... Parts that will be on the moon, that are already in orbit, parts that are used in some of the worlds most advanced brain implants, components that are allowing scientists to peer deeper into what makes this world "tick"... but unfortunately, more than 90% of the work we do is protected by NDA's. This means that these parts are bound with confidentiality agreements that limit our ability to show them publicly.

This week we are manufacturing a part for a quantum computer. It's a small component that will end up being in the heart of one of the most advanced quantum computers in the world, being built by a massive household name. This particular component requires the use of a very specialised tool called an "MCD Flycutter". (M)ono (C)rystalline (D)iamond is a fancy way of saying either natural, or lab-grown diamond. Diamond is the hardest material known to man, and because of that, it is a fantastic cutting tool. if properly sharpened, it can hold an edge that is stronger and sharper than any other material. This incredibly keen edge, when used to cut non-ferrous materials, is able to make amazing surface finishes. Mirrors!
The 2.5 carat diamond is bonded to a Tungsten carbide body, and sharpened by lapping against finer, smaller diamonds grains. This lapping process transforms the cutting edge into a perfectly sharp and smooth tip. Under even 800x zoom, you cannot see any defects or chipping! The lapping is usually done by hand, by seasoned experts.

The part that is going into the quantum computer requires a mirror surface to be cut into aluminium. This surface is used to bounce a laser in a very specific, and accurate direction. The angles, flatness and surface finish have to be as close to perfect as possible. I can't show the final part, but we can show you the results from this MCD flycutter. In the link below you can see the surface that our MCD tool left on this piece of aluminium - no polishing, and exceptionally flat. Check it out here: https://www.instagram.com/reel/C9lr-fSRD6p/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

Josh

The graph says it all

 

During the past 12 months, Swatch (Omega, Longines, Breguet etc.) shares have lost 35% of their value.

Actually, after they peaked at almost CHF 800 in 2014, they are now down more than 75%.

According to Bloomberg, “Swatch group reported a 70% drop in operating profit and a 14% drop in sales for the first six months of the year". Apparently, Omega is sitting on 7.1 billion CHF worth of unsold stock.

And that calculation is on manufacturing cost price, not the retail watch value.
Is the world of watches, as we know it, ending tonight? Should we all sell our Omega watches, cut our losses and exit the market before it’s too late?
 
Absolutely not. And here is why.
 
While the low demand for luxury products is obviously affecting the sales, the truth is that low demand is not the result of an inferior product, nor a customer’s desire to invest in watches. There are three mighty forces in play which are directly affecting the sales. First, interest rates which jumped from zero to well over 6% (US, Australia) and around 4% (Europe). The disposable income of about one third of all watch enthusiasts has been sucked out by banks.

The second reason is very low demand from mainland China. Swiss analysts say that “Chinese consumers are becoming increasingly sensitive to the prices of luxury goods”. That may be the truth, but only partially. Chinese buyers are increasingly sensitive to constant anti-Chinese sentiments, tariffs, trade restrictions, trade wars, to downright economic bullying. There is a strong and growing sentiment that domestic spending on domestically manufactured goods is good for China. Buying a Rolex or Patek is still a way to reward yourself, mark an important milestone, or simply display one’s wealth, but there is definitely a constrain in ‘investing’ in multiple pieces. The Chinese market is simply maturing, becoming more sophisticated.

The third reason is post-Covid back to reality. During the lockdown, luxury watch manufacturing had it good. Exceedingly good. Buyers were forced to stay at home, bored, eager to reward themselves with a watch or two. Online sales exploded; and the myth of ‘luxury watches being the ultimate investment’ created an artificial market boom. A horological tulip mania. No commodity can sustain a 300% price ‘growth’ in just a year or two.
We had it good, the party is over. And by over, we simply mean: back to normal.
 
I am absolutely not worried about Omega as a brand. Omega is not a newcomer to commerce, nor luxury goods. The excess stock will be quietly disposed to the grey market, as has happened so many times in the past. There are thousands of second hand dealers in Hong Kong, Tokyo, Singapore, the US and the Middle East who would be more than happy to get their hands on such desirable stock. They are major players who are financially capable of investing in luxury watches, with their own distribution network. If anything, overstock is great news for you, and me.
 
The “ups and downs” in the luxury watch trade are nothing more than regular cycles of supply, demand, amplified by external financial and economical forces, hype, political trends, news, and wars.

To the Swiss: business as usual.