Clueless flippers

 

If you are even casually interested in YouTube watch channels, you must have noticed an avalanche of videos warning you that “watch collecting is dead,” “the market has collapsed,” and that you “must sell now before it’s too late.” The doom and gloom. The horological apocalypse of unimaginable magnitude. These creators and “watch gurus” are the same fools who, only a year or two ago, were telling you that investing in watches was a smart way to make money — and have fun. The truth is simple: all those videos come from small-time flippers on limited budgets, whose main activity is YouTubing and e-begging. They feed on gossip and stir up controversy. They are in the game for clicks. As a long-time subscriber to my daily newsletters, you have a perfect opportunity to see what stock is available, the volumes, prices, trends, what’s popular — and what’s not. We operate in the entry- to mid-price level, with an average sale of pre-owned Swiss watches at around $6,500. So the facts below reflect that segment. However, this is the price band with the most market activity, and the one of greatest interest to novice and intermediate collectors and enthusiasts. As such, it represents overall trends accurately. Fact 1 Good quality stock, priced attractively, is almost impossible to find. There is a strong demand for extra-fine, pre-loved Omega, Breitling, Cartier, Rolex and numerous other brands. This demand is constant and unaffected by the economy, interest rates, inflation, or disposable income. A four-bedroom house on a large block in a leafy suburb with an ocean view will always find a buyer. And so will a mint 1990s Omega Moonwatch. Fact 2 We see no slowdown in the watch trade. Yes, the COVID years were significantly busier, but COVID was a once-in-a-lifetime anomaly. We buy and sell multiple watches every day. Most go to newsletter subscribers, but many are sold in our shop, through our website, or via personal recommendation. Business as usual. Fact 3 We have not seen a major collection liquidation in years. The last time we bought 25 watches in one go, from a single seller, was well before COVID. Collectors are not selling en masse. If we can buy five pieces at once, we consider that a major volume deal. Fact 4 Prices of new watches are going up — and they will continue to go up. Manufacturing costs, labour costs, energy costs, and the cost of modern machinery in Europe are constantly rising. The Swiss are not newcomers to horology; they’ve been playing the luxury watch game for two centuries. They know when to increase production and when to slow down. They’ve been through every financial crisis and are playing a long game. A Swiss industrialist is cashed-up, old-money, debt-free, and running a manufacturing facility that has specialised in a particular field for generations. The economics of watchmaking will not change even if you wake up tomorrow to news that Russia has resumed supplying cheap oil and gas to Europe on a scale never seen before. It won’t happen — so don’t hold your breath. Rolex, Patek, Cartier, Omega and Breitling are not going out of business. Consequently, prices of fine pre-owned stock will continue to rise. Don’t waste your time on clueless YouTube fools. But if you’re still puzzled by the trends, ask yourself a simple question: Am I buying a watch next year or not? I bet you will.